How we estimate tax savings
Potential tax savings assume a direct indexing account funded with a one-time cash deposit harvests losses equal to 30% of the amount invested over 10 years, and that you have at least that much in short-term capital gains to offset, realized gradually over the same period. The "up to" figure is those losses multiplied by a combined 54.1% rate: 37% federal ordinary income, 3.8% net investment income tax and 13.3% California, the top brackets. Harvested losses offset short-term gains first. Against long-term gains the combined rate is 37.1% (20% federal), so the savings are lower: for a $500,000 account, up to $81,150 against short-term gains versus about $55,650 against long-term gains. If your gains are smaller than the losses harvested, or you are in a lower bracket, your savings will also be lower.
The 30% figure comes from Khang, Paradise and Cummings, "Expected Loss Harvest From Tax-Loss Harvesting With Direct Indexing," The Journal of Beta Investment Strategies 14(3), 2023, which found that a lump-sum direct indexing portfolio harvested about 30% of principal and dividends over 10 years across 64 historical simulations from 1982 to 2013, with outcomes ranging from 12% to 62%. Liberman, Krasner, Sosner and Freitas (same journal, 2023) report a similar result.
Losses cannot be applied to gains from earlier tax years. Harvesting lowers the cost basis of the direct indexing account, so much of the benefit is a deferral of tax rather than a permanent reduction. This is a hypothetical estimate for illustration, not tax advice and not a projection of any actual account. It does not reflect fees or transaction costs.
Direct Indexing and Loss Harvesting disclosures
Losses save tax only against realized capital gains. Excess losses can offset up to $3,000 a year of ordinary income and the balance gets carried forward for use in future years. Loss harvesting lowers cost basis, so the tax benefit may be deferred rather than eliminated.
Tax-loss harvesting results vary with markets and your tax situation and are not guaranteed: harvestable losses may be smaller than the gains you want to offset, and not all gains can be offset. Direct indexing accounts will have a tracking error against the index and performance may deviate from it. Factor tilts, themes and customizations may cause returns to differ from the index.
InverseWealth LLC is a California-registered investment adviser, independent of and not affiliated with Charles Schwab or Nuveen. SIPC and excess coverage protect against custodian failure, not market losses. Securities-based lending carries risk, including collateral calls and forced sales. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results. InverseWealth does not provide legal or tax advice; consult a qualified tax professional. Not a solicitation of advisory services outside California or where otherwise legally permitted.